The Bodansky File (Continued)

In a recent analysis, Youssef Bodansky, former Director of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS), noted that the greatest threat to stability in the Maghreb and Western Mediterranean was what he described as “the rejuvenation of the terrorism campaign” of the Polisario Front. The escalation by the Polisario comes in the midst of the latest United Nations effort to finally resolve the Western Sahara conflict.

-- Moroccan American Center for Policy (MACP) press release (January 11,2008)

Unaware that Polisario had a terrorism campaign to rejuvenate, I wrote a short post a few months ago titled The Bodansky File in which I mention my unsuccessful attempt to find the “recent analysis” on Polisario terrorism referred to by MACP. I am pleased to report that recently I stumbled across that analysis on an obscure blog called Med-Atlantic.

Made up of six posts from October 2007 to May 2008 by a poster identified as Medperson, Med-Atlantic -- subtitled “On the importance of the Mediterranean Basin as a strategic environment, with its impact on North Atlantic Security” -- is a passionately pro-Morocco and savagely anti-Algeria rant heavy on Polisario bashing. It even comes down hard on the U.S. for not supporting Morocco forcefully enough. The basic thrust of the site is that Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara must be asserted in order to counter what the author sees as Algerian expansionism that threatens the stability of the Maghreb. Medperson apparently has no problem with Moroccan expansionism.

The study referred to in the MACP press release is printed in its entirety in the body of a December 2007 post titled Algeria Pushes POLISARIO Toward a New War “More Dangerous than Al Qaida”. Medperson prefaces that study with the following:

Med-Atlantic received a leaked report from the Global Information System (GIS), an intelligence service used by the US Defense Department and other key Western governments, which details Algeria's plans for POLISARIO. We're running it in full here: POLISARIO Congress Reflects the Major Threat to Maghreb Stability as Algeria Enters a Power Struggle, With Itself and the West By Yossef Bodansky, Senior Editor, GIS.

Mr. Bodansky gets right to the point in his first two paragraphs:

The great threat to stability in the Maghreb and the Western Mediterranean is not the ascent and spread of the Islamist-jihadist trend — which is extremely dangerous in the mid- to long-term — but is shaping up to be the rejuvenation of the terrorism campaign by the Frente POLISARIO (Frente Popular para la Liberacion de Saguia el-Hamra y de Rio de Oro).

POLISARIO is currently holding its special 12th congress in Tifariti, Moroccan Western Sahara (MWS), east of the berm. Because of the regional strategic dynamics, the calls for, and threats of, the resumption of the “armed struggle” against Morocco emanating from this POLISARIO congress may prove a greater destabilizing factor for the entire Maghreb than even the most recent jihadist bombing in Algiers.

The rest of Bodansky’s report is spent trying to back up these rather ominous warnings. But before I take a look at his ideas I would just like to highlight a couple things in these first two paragraphs that I feel betray his mindset.

There is for starters the matter of his insistence on calling the territory the “Moroccan Western Sahara.” Most of the world calls the former Spanish Sahara colony the “Western Sahara,” but Morocco prefers the “Moroccan Sahara.” Why Bodansky prefers to use the made-up “Moroccan Western Sahara” – and the even sillier “MWS” – is a mystery to me. And his placing Tifariti within the Moroccan Western Sahara is just bizarre, since it is in the part of the territory controlled by the Polisario and thus firmly within the SADR Western Sahara (SADRWS).

And then there is his subtle bait and switch. Having warned us of “the rejuvenation of the terrorism campaign by the Frente POLISARIO” in the first paragraph, by the second this has morphed into a resumption of armed struggle. In fact, the question of Polisario terrorism is never again mentioned in the study. It’s hard to tell whether his branding Polisario a terrorist organization was just a slip of the pen or whether he just forgot to offer any proof. In any event, it is all too typical of MACP’s modus operandi that it should trumpet the terrorist threat of Polisario based on a study that offers absolutely zero evidence of such terrorism.

Now on to Bodansky’s ideas. What apparently initially got him all riled up was the Polisario party congress held in Tifariti in December 2007 where, he states, “the POLISARIO Frente resolved to rearm and prepare for a new war which would be launched by 2009 if the diplomatic process could not deliver POLISARIO’s demands for full independence.” Bodansky’s take on the Tifariti congress is just wrong. Nowhere at the congress did Polisario threaten war if its “demands for full independence” were not met. Polisario has unambiguously made it clear that self-determination through a referendum with independence as an option is what they seek, and that they will abide by whatever the people decide, be it independence, autonomy, or inclusion in Morocco.

From this erroneous premise, Bodansky proceeds to make his case for quashing Polisario and supporting Moroccan hegemony. He makes three basic arguments: 1) that the Western Saharan people overwhelmingly support a return to Morocco, 2) that Africa doesn’t need another failed ministate, and 3) that Polisario’s threat to return to arms is directly related to the Algerian succession crisis.

The Western Saharan people overwhelmingly support a return to Morocco

Here is what Bodansky has to say about the desires of the Western Saharans:

More than 15 years after the latest ceasefire agreement in MWS, the entire population — both in Morocco and in the POLISARIO-run camps — has demonstrated a strong commitment to a return to stability, normalcy, and chance at the betterment of their own lives. The population of MWS has indicated, through elections and other indicators, a measurable determination to remain an integral part of the Moroccan rejuvenation and development. The MWS population has been passing this message for several years to the POLSARIO leadership via their expatriate kin in Western Europe. In contrast, the refugee population in the POLISARIO camps, mainly in the Tindouf area in Algeria, is exhausted from the closure, hardship, lack of prospects. The people see no hope for themselves in an Algeria torn by civil war and afflicted by economic misery….

Simply put, the people of MWS realized that their own aspirations can be best achieved when they are part of Morocco….

The Moroccan elections of early September 2007 provided an uncontroversial proof of this transformation of the people of MWS….the voter turnout in the MWS was extremely heavy….This constitutes a clear demonstration that the population in MWS considers itself Moroccan, is convinced that it has vital stakes in the political process in Rabat, and is determined to have its say there….Thus, the Moroccan parliamentary elections in MWS proved that the local population considers itself an integral part of a single, unified Morocco.

What is one to make of this kind of writing that opinionates with absolute and categorical certainty about things that demonstrably are not true? About thirty seconds of research is enough to realize that what he says is “clear” is totally unclear, what he says in “uncontroversial” is totally controversial. He chooses to not even mention the anti-Moroccan demonstrations and riots of the last few years that clearly debunk his theory of total Western Saharan support for Moroccan hegemony. He chooses to ignore the fact that the majority of people currently living in the occupied territory are subsidized Moroccan migrants and colonists with no legal ties to the Western Sahara under international law and thus no say on the territory's future. He chooses not to mention any of the numerous studies by respected NGOs that chronicle the brutality of Moroccan police rule and increasing assertions of Western Saharan nationalism and anti-Moroccan sentiment. His generalizations about the yearnings of the refugees in Tindouf don’t stand up to any kind of scrutiny. And in the final analysis, Bodansky’s claim that the entire population desires a life under Moroccan rule is rendered totally farcical by Rabat’s refusal to allow a referendum under any circumstances.

We Don’t Need Another Failed Mini-State

Bodansky writes:

Meanwhile, the international community has become increasingly alarmed by failed ministates, such as Timor-Leste, and unchecked secessionism. Even the most ardent supporters of the “Sahrawi people” in the West now doubt the viability of a POLISARIO-run state. The West sees no need for another failed state and bastion of criminality, living off the smuggling routes between west-central Africa and Western Europe. All expert studies have demonstrated that a POLISARIO-run state cannot sustain any other type of economy on its own; industrial and resource development are impossible without reliance on the infrastructure and human resources of Morocco while POLISARIO advocates the complete delinking of MWS from Morocco. Hence, particularly after the POLISARIO’s intransigence in the UN-run Manhasset, New York, talks in early August 2007, international support for Morocco’s autonomy plan — with all its possible imperfections — has started to grow.

While the issue of failed states is indeed serious, Bodansky’s attempt to convince us that the Western Sahara would be such a state is hardly convincing. His contention that “Even the most ardent supporters of the 'Sahrawi people' in the West now doubt the viability of a POLISARIO-run state” is just silly. I would love to know who these “most ardent supporters” are. The ardent supporters I am aware of tend to feel that an independent Western Sahara would do just fine given the small population and the large natural resource reserve base of the territory. Similarly, his sweeping declaration that “All expert studies have demonstrated that a POLISARIO-run state cannot sustain any … type of economy on its own” other than one based on criminality and smuggling is ludicrous. To say “all expert studies” is I would say a bit presumptuous; I have trouble thinking of even one.

POLISARIO’s threat to return to arms is directly related to the Algerian succession crisis

And here Bodansky really hits his stride:

However, what makes POLISARIO’s threat to resume the armed struggle so ominous — beyond the continued military build-up of POLISARIO in its Algerian sanctuaries — is its impact on the Algerian succession crisis. Pres. Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s health has deteriorated recently. With no heir apparent, inner struggles are intensifying within the Algerian Government. Most important is the succession struggle between the “army élite” and the “energy lobby”, both comprised of most senior officials and their cronies. Furthermore, each of these groups is further divided into pro-Russia, pro-France, and pro-US sub-groupings. Therefore, all decisions are made as a result of power-maneuvers between at least six “clans” which confront each other and win through transient and narrow-issue alliances.

The “army elite” and some in the “energy lobby” believe that crisis and war are the quickest way — a shortcut — to the post-Bouteflika throne. In recent years, Bouteflika preferred to stay neutral. When he had to take a side, he tilted with the “energy lobby”, which generated US and Western support. However, in recent months, Pres. Bouteflika has clearly tilted toward, and even openly sided with, the “army élite”. While Bouteflika made his move because he believes the military élite is better suited to sustain him in power and follow his policies, he will have to “pay” for the military support by heightening the regional tension even if it leads to war with Morocco.

This is the nitty gritty of Bodansky’s argument – that Algerian perfidy is behind all of the Polisario saber-rattling or more specifically that Algerian President Bouteflika is purposely trying to destabilize the whole region to sustain himself in power. I haven’t a clue whether Bodansky’s analysis of the Algerian succession makes any sense at all. I do find it ironic, though, that what he accuses Algeria of doing is precisely what Morocco has been doing throughout this conflict. There is a wide acceptance, especially within the U.S. government, of the notion that the Alaouite dynasty might fall if it “lost” the Western Sahara. Mohammed VI and his father Hassan II have for over 30 years rejected self-determination for the Western Sahara in defiance of the UN and international law and kept the region in a state of perpetual instability in order to guarantee THEIR succession. All I know is that Morocco, by completely refusing to abide by the terms of the cease-fire agreement of 1991 and by refusing to now even discuss real self-determination has forced the Western Saharans into a corner. If the Western Saharans once again take up arms, Morocco will have no one to blame but itself. Bodansky’s attempt to place the blame on Algeria is preposterous.

Yossef Bodansky’s study is an elaborate fabrication masquerading as informed security analysis. He either doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about or else is intentionally falsifying the current situation in the Western Sahara for Moroccan gain. His pompous attempts to sound authoritative about things that are clearly not true are damning. His attempt to brand Polisario a terrorist organization without any substantiation is just plain unethical.

There is something altogether very sleazy about Bodansky's whole involvement with the Western Saharan issue. To begin with, there’s MACP’s reference to his study, which in itself makes the report very suspect. Then there’s the supposed leaking of the secret study to Medperson at Med-Atlantic; the stylistic similarities between Medperson’s posts and Bodansky’s study lead me to believe that Medperson IS Bodansky and he is leaking his own report.

And then there is the whole relationship I allude to in The Bodansky File between Bodansky, Marc. S. Ellenbogen, and Hassan Abouyoub, Chief Foreign Policy Advisor to King Mohamed VI of Morocco in Prague at the Global Panel Foundation and Prague Society. Rabat through Abouyoub is clearly using this well-connected behind-the-scenes networking cabal in Prague to give a stamp of legitimacy to its cockamamie ideas about the Western Sahara. Ellenbogen through his syndicated column Atlantic Eye provides an entrée into Reverend Moon’s media empire (UPI, Washington Times, Middle East Times, etc.); Bodansky supplies a well-established following from his best-selling books on terrorism and a direct conduit into the U.S. government from his employment with Congress. The drivel that came out of this group’s field trip to Morocco last year (see Marc S. Ellenbogen & the Myopic Miasma of Moroccan Malice) only confirms the extent to which this group is compromised.

In conclusion, I return to Bodansky’s warning that a resumption of Polisario’s armed struggle would be more destabilizing for the Maghreb than Al Qaeda. I happen to agree with that. A return to war in the Western Sahara would be a catastrophe for all involved. However, as I see it, this is a rationale for the world community to once and for all force Morocco to hold a referendum on independence (with autonomy as an option if you like), so this whole issue can finally be put to rest. Trying to force Moroccan sovereignty onto the Western Saharans and to legitimize Rabat’s expansionism, as Bodansky would have it, would only create the very situation he says he is trying to prevent.

Why Was Morocco's Autonomy Initiative Devised?

The Initiative was launched to overcome the deadlock in United Nations’ mediated negotiations between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Algeria and their proxy the Polisario Front. As the work of several United Nations’ Secretaries-General and their Personal Envoys to the region have failed to reach a mutually-acceptable solution, the Kingdom of Morocco drew up the Initiative for negotiated autonomy for the Sahara to reach a lasting political solution to the conflict.

-- Freedom for All website (Tanya Warburg, Director)

This view that Morocco’s autonomy initiative for the Western Sahara should be supported because it is a commendable and reasonable compromise to once and for all overcome “the deadlock in United Nations’ mediated negotiations” has been getting a lot of play time recently by the pro-Rabat forces. The view is unacceptable and should be soundly rejected because its basic premise -- that the “deadlock is the result of a “fail[ure] to reach a mutually-acceptable solution -- is just not true. The reality of the matter is that the current deadlock is based totally on the failure of Morocco to abide by the “mutually-acceptable solution” that was reached by Rabat and the Polisario in 1988, approved in its final form by the Security Council (S/22464, “Settlement Plan”) in 1991, and refined further by the Houston Accords signed by both parties in 1997. The autonomy initiative is a joke because it ignores the reality that it is Morocco that has created the current deadlock by refusing to implement the far-reaching solution that was agreed to by all the parties to the conflict (Morocco, Polisario, Algeria, and the UN) two decades ago.

With the 20^th Anniversary of that historic agreement coming up in August it is I think an appropriate time to look back at the Settlement Plan. I will quote liberally from the International Crisis Group’s (ICG) June 2007 report, Western Sahara: Out of the Impasse, which gives a concise, accurate, and well-written analysis of the referendum years (all quotes below are from that report with page numbers noted).

In August 1988, both Polisario and Morocco declared that they accepted a UN proposal (based on an earlier OAU proposal) for a ceasefire, exchange of prisoners, repatriation of refugees and the withdrawal of Moroccan forces from the territory, to be followed by a referendum on self-determination, with the choice being between independence and integration into Morocco. A final version of this proposal, known as the Settlement Plan, was approved by the Security Council in 1991. (p.1-2)

I was following the issue at the UN in Geneva in the early 1990’s and remember the euphoria accompanying the Settlement Plan. The Polisario and Hassan II had met for the first time; a mutually-acceptable plan to resolve the crisis had become a reality; MINURSO was in place to register voters; and the referendum was expected within a year. The euphoria, however, proved to be short lived. With the ink on the Settlement Plan still wet, Morocco embarked on a pattern of obstruction that would eventually result in the scuttling of the Plan a decade later. The ICG continues:

Morocco and the Polisario Front had formally agreed in 1988 that the referendum should be based on the electorate as defined by the 1974 census of the territory….But in April 1991 King Hassan of Morocco insisted that the voter rolls be expanded well beyond what has previously been agreed and include people who had long been settled in Morocco. (p. 2)

Had King Hassan allowed MINURSO to do its work per the Settlement Agreement, the referendum would have taken place in 1992 or 1993 and the crisis would have been over. Instead he chose to pursue a strategy of trying to pad the electoral roles with pro-Rabat Moroccans “in order to maximize Morocco’s chances of winning the referendum.” (p. 2) The Polisario of course resisted this attempt to rewrite and circumvent the agreement, and by mid-decade the referendum process had made little progress. Then along came James Baker III to try to save the day.

When the process seemed in danger of coming to a stop, the personal envoy of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, the former U.S. Secretary of State James A. Baker III, managed to rescue it through intensive diplomacy. In a series of meetings which he held with Morocco, Polisario and Algeria in April 1997, all three parties reaffirmed their commitment to the 1991 Settlement Plan. Further rounds in London and Lisbon paved the way for a final meeting in Houston on 14-16 September 1997. There, agreement was reached by the parties on all the issues blocking implementation of the Settlement Plan, including the key issue of voter identification. (p. 2)

With a new agreement in hand, MINURSO was able to resume the registration of voters. “In January 2000, MINURSO, after years of meticulous work, at last arrived at what it regarded as a fair determination of the valid electorate for the proposed referendum, namely a total electorate of 86,386.” (p. 2) At that point, once again the end of the crisis was in sight and the referendum could have been held in short order. But Rabat had other ideas. MINURSO was “promptly faced with no fewer than 131,038 appeals against its decisions…, the vast majority of these Moroccan-sponsored applicants.” (p. 2) The Settlement Plan was dead.

Reluctant to dismiss these appeals and accordingly faced with the prospect of, in effect, having to begin the voter identification process all over again, the UN tacitly dropped the 1991 Settlement Plan…. (p. 2)

Again, my reason for returning to this history of the Settlement Plan is to counter the view of the pro-Rabat people that autonomy is a fine compromise justified by the elusiveness of a “mutually-acceptable solution.” As you should see from the above, the parties mutually accepted two major solutions in 1988 and 1997, and Morocco obstructed, undermined, and ultimately trashed both. Again, the ICG is eloquent on this:

There is a clear asymmetry in the behaviour of the main parties. The Polisario Front signed up to the 1991 Settlement Plan and, having made a number of concessions on the voter identification issue and on certain secondary matters, was clearly prepared to abide by its outcome…. It cannot be said of Polisario that it went back on any of its undertakings. But Morocco repeatedly did so with impunity. Whenever matters came to a head, Morocco demonstrated that it did not accept UN arbitration of important issues if this arbitration went – or threatened to go – against it. And Morocco also, and above all, repeatedly demonstrated that it accepted the principle of self-determination only if the result of its exercise in a referendum could be guaranteed in advance to be in Morocco’s favour. (p. 5)

Why was the autonomy initiative devised? Tanya Warburg’s view that it has to do with Morocco’s desire to find a “mutually-acceptable solution” to break the deadlock is pure nonsense. Once again, such a solution was reached years ago and Morocco showed itself to be a thoroughly dishonest and duplicitous negotiating partner. The autonomy initiative is nothing more than a cynical attempt by Morocco to leverage its friendship with the U.S. and France to prevent self-determination in the ex-colony and to gain formal recognition of its illegal annexation. I say “cynical” because history has proven that Morocco and its apologists such as Tanya Warburg couldn’t care less about the well-being of the Western Saharans. If they did they wouldn’t be so insistent on denying them the right to vote on their future.

Freedom for All (except the Western Saharans)

Over at One Hump or Two, Nick Brooks of Sand & Dust recently alerted us to the appearance of another outrageous pro-autonomy website titled Freedom for All:

I thought the Together Foundation had slipped gently away after it became obvious that it was a put-up job by Moroccan spooks. It seems to have been replaced by this:

http://www.freedom-for-all.org/index.php

They seem to have hired someone with better web skills and a more comprehensive command of the English language for FFA. However, it's still the same unsubtle pro-Rabat bilge.

As if it wasn't obvious enough who's behind this, there's a watermark-style background that shows a greater Morocco, with a Moroccan flag squatting over the western Mediterranean.

Same old craaap, just a bit slicker.

I checked out the Freedom for All site, and Nick is quite right that this is a far slicker production than the Together Foundation. Since the site does not list officers, board members, or any names for that matter, I thought I’d try to find out who was behind this blatant propaganda effort.

A quick google of their phone number in London (+44 (0) 7711 67 1896) shows that Freedom for All shares a number with a public relations and marketing firm also in London named Davis Warburg Associates, named after the partners of the enterprise Helen Davis and Tanya Warburg.

Googling “Helen Davis” and Morocco revealed nothing of interest; “Tanya Warburg” and Morocco, however, pulls up around 25 results informing us that Tanya Warburg is the director of Freedom for All. She sprang onto the Western Sahara scene in October 2006 when she testified in support of Morocco’s autonomy proposal and on behalf of Freedom for All at the 4^th Committee in New York.

After this testimony, she kept a low profile until she registered her website in April 2007 under the name of her web designer, Paul Freedman of Red Sphere Media (thank you Laroussi for posting this on One Hump or Two).

Given that PR firms (most notably Edelman) are the main conduits of Moroccan propaganda and misinformation regarding the Western Sahara in the U.S., the fact that Freedom for All is run by a partner in a U.K. PR firm raises all kinds of red flags.

A quick call to London confirmed that Tanya Warburg is indeed director of Freedom for All. To my rather pointed questions, she denied receiving any money at all from Morocco and said that her work for Freedom for All was strictly a hobby. With no evidence to the contrary, I will take her at her word on this.

Of course, if she is not being paid by Morocco that raises the question of what then explains the grotesque pile of misinformation, factual errors, errors of omission, and flawed analysis that makes up her site.

The Morocco Lobby, Brokeback Mountain, & the Fate of the Western Sahara

Having recently gotten back from an extended trip abroad, I searched and searched the Internet for blog-worthy items about the Western Sahara and was on the verge of concluding that Will, Alle, et al. had comprehensively taken care of business when I ran across a strange tale of J. Peter Segall and Edward M. Gabriel from early April that somehow missed their radar. Thanks guys for leaving one for me (or could it be that you did not consider it a blog-worthy item?). Anyway….

Now Ed Gabriel is familiar to my readers as the former American ambassador to Morocco who over the last few years has been on Rabat’s payroll as one of the major attractions in their multimillion-dollar propaganda circus in the U.S. Without getting into the tawdry particulars of his selling out to Morocco – which I have covered ad nauseum elsewhere – let me just say here that his groveling recitations of the Moroccan royalist line betray a moral compass little evolved from a cicada.

On April 1 the following “in memoriam” ad for Mr. Gabriel appeared in the Washington Post below his smiling mustachioed face: “Though I no longer have you as my partner, this day will always be OUR anniversary. . . . I could never quit you.” Before you construe my nasty words about Mr. Gabriel in the previous paragraph as tasteless trashing of a dead man, let me quickly add that the ad was an April Fools joke and that Mr. Gabriel is not in fact dead (you can still construe it as tasteless trashing of a live man if you like).

In the spirit of aprilfoolery, the Post on April 2, in an article titled “A ‘Death’ is Noticed,” explained that Edward M. Gabriel, an “international business consultant who was the U.S. ambassador to Morocco from 1997 to 2001,” was “very much alive”; that the ad, “in language reminiscent of the movie ‘Brokeback Mountain,’” was a hoax; and that the one who took out the ad, public relations executive and lawyer J. Peter Segall, was paying for a retraction in that day’s Post.

Other than Mr. Gabriel’s obvious association with Morocco’s campaign to discredit the Polisario Front, I suspect you are wondering what it is that makes this a blog-worthy Western Sahara story. The hook is that J. Peter Segall is “general manager in Edelman's Washington office, and oversee[s] the relationship with the Kingdom of Morocco.” In February of last year on Richard Edelman’s “6 A.M.” blog, I took Mr. Edelman to task for getting all self-righteous in criticizing Robert Mugabe’s autocratic ways, while at the same time taking lots of money from Morocco to cover up and whitewash Mohammed VI’s disdain for democracy and Morocco’s totalitarian ways in the occupied territories. Anyway, it was J. Peter Segall who responded to my comments with a predictably wishy-washy and unconvincing defense of Edelman’s relationship with Morocco. “Our work with Morocco has been transparent and forthright and we look forward to continuing our partnership with this unique and important country.”

According to the Post article, poor Ed “fielded calls all day from friends who thought he had died. One woman told him she spent two hours crying after seeing the ad.” An apparently mortified Segall explained, “As I said in a correction that I hope is published [today], I engaged in a very stupid and ultimately cruel April Fools' joke against a man that has been my best friend for 30 years, and I deeply, deeply regret it." And Gabriel elaborates, “He's an old friend who plays jokes on me every year, and some are hilarious, but they've been private….He's a good friend who went a little too far. He's apologized profusely, and I've accepted it, but not without being a little hurt. I think -- I know -- he had no ill intent.” Summarizing the whole episode, “Segall said,” according to the Post “that he is a mature man who made an immature mistake.” Given the utter stupidity and silliness of publishing a gay death hoax about a friend in the Washington Post, I would say that Segall’s maturity is certainly open to question -- especially since he is a high-level executive for one of the biggest and most influential PR firms in the world.

And what in the world is the homosexuality angle all about? While Segall’s ad does seem to insinuate a gay relationship (“though I no longer have you as my partner…”), the Washington Post article takes it a step further by making the connection with “Brokeback Mountain” (“in language reminiscent of the movie ‘Brokeback Mountain’”), a popular recent movie about two married cowboys who carry on a long-time gay love affair behind the backs of their wives. The language in question in Segall’s ad, by the way, is “I could never quit you,” which is indeed reminiscent of Brokeback’s “I wish I knew how to quit you.”

Let me preface this paragraph with a disclaimer that I couldn’t care less about Segall, Gabriel, or anyone else’s sexual orientation. I just find it incredibly strange that Segall would pull a public gay spoof on his old friend when, first of all, Gabriel is married (to Democratic Party operative and tobacco industry lobbyist, Kathleen “Buffy” Linehan), and, secondly, both these guys lobby and do PR for Morocco, where homosexual relations are illegal and can land you in jail for up to three years (Section 489 of the Moroccan Penal Code). With Edelman’s Morocco desk being overseen by someone exhibiting such atrociously bad judgment, there just might be some hope after all for the Western Sahara cause.

This whole silly April Fools episode strikes me as sadly symbolic of the tragic dilemma in which the Western Sahara currently finds itself. For over 35 years, the UN and the world community -- through numerous resolutions and rulings, and the refusal of even one country to recognize Morocco’s occupation -- have confirmed the Western Saharan’s right to self-determination. A combination of blind US and French support for Morocco, the UN retreating on its commitments to the Western Sahara (see van Walsum’s realism), and Morocco’s huge expenditures on PR and lobbying has brought us to the point where the future of a people is being determined by a mercenary bunch of yahoos such as J. Peter Segall and Edward M. Gabriel.

I can’t help but be left with an image of J. Peter Segall and Edward M. Gabriel in their tight blue jeans sitting around a campfire on a dark stormy night on Brokeback Mountain concocting new and exciting schemes to screw the Sahrawi.

As an aside, in confirming that Gabriel was in fact married, I ran across some tidbits online about Gabriel’s wife, Buffy, that are interesting in the context of this story. In 1992, as head of Philip Morris’s lobbying group, she was deposed in a lawsuit against B.J. Reynolds Tobacco (KUEPER v. R.J. REYNOLDS TOBACCO CO). Sourcewatch, a project of the Center for Media and Democracy, comments about her deposition: “…Linehan indicated that she was involved in lobbying against the banning of smoking on commercial aircraft, and that she does not consider the health consequences of the product she is lobbying (cigarettes).” And at another deposition in 1995, Sourcewatch adds that “Linehan stated that she did not believe that cigarette smoking is addictive.” Buffy and Ed really do seem made for each other; both are lobbyists who get paid for actively promoting products (cigarettes and Morocco) that spread misery and death, and neither is willing to consider the human consequences of their actions.

The Bodansky File

While researching my recent post on Edelman, I came across a Moroccan-American Center for Policy (MACP) press release from January 11, 2008, titled Western Sahara Negotiations Continue Despite Polisario War Threats.

The following paragraph in that release caught my attention:

In a recent analysis, Youssef Bodansky, former Director of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS), noted that the greatest threat to stability in the Maghreb and Western Mediterranean was what he described as “the rejuvenation of the terrorism campaign” of the Polisario Front. The escalation by the Polisario comes in the midst of the latest United Nations effort to finally resolve the Western Sahara conflict.

Now this Youssef Bodansky is an Israeli-born political scientist and terrorism expert with ten mostly-terrorism-related books under his belt, a ton of articles in big publications to his credit, vast work experience throughout the US Government, and a reputation for having foreseen and predicted many of the terror incidents of the last few years, including 9/11. See Wikipedia for specifics.

With a resume like this one can hardly be faulted for thinking that maybe this guy knows a thing or two about terrorism and that he might be on to something when he makes such a damning statement about the Polisario. But having already been burned once by assuming the same thing about another pro-Israel terrorism expert, Claude Moniquet, I thought I’d dig a little further and try to find the “recent analysis” where the quote about “the rejuvenation of the [Polisario’s] terrorism campaign” came from. I scoured the internet and have come up empty. So a few days ago I shot off e-mails to both MACP and Mr. Bodansky for clarification and so far have heard nothing.

The reason all this is of interest to me is that most of the scholars I am aware of specializing in and writing on the Polisario (see Shelley, Zunes, Mundy, and even Jensen) clearly see the Polisario and the terrorism question in quite a different light. They are very consistently impressed by the Polisario’s refusal, even in the face of rather ugly state terrorism practiced by Morocco, to resort to terrorism. So I am forced to wonder, first of all, what past “terrorism campaign” Mr. Bodansky is referring to as being ripe for “rejuvenation.” Some have tried to construe a handful of Polisario attacks on fishing boats entering the war zone in the ‘70s and 80’s as terroristic activity, but few find this convincing. Secondly, I wonder what leads Mr. Bodansky to think that the Polisario is on the verge of changing their MO and adopting terrorism.

While trying to figure out where Mr. Bodansky is coming from on the Western Sahara issue, I happened to run across some interesting associations of his. He it turns out is on the Executive Commitee of a group called Global Panel America along with none other than Marc S. Ellenbogen, and who should appear on their Advisory Board but Hon. Hassan Abouyoub, Chief Foreign Policy Advisor to King Mohamed VI of Morocco. In a similar vein, Mr. Bodansky is also a Director of the Prague Society for International Cooperation of which Mr. Ellenbogen is President and Mr. Abouyoub a frequent guest. Both these groups appear to be behind-the-scenes networking organizations with very fancy members. Mr. Ellenbogen, in case you are not one of my regular readers, has written some of the most factually compromised material in recent memory on the Western Sahara and got his very own post on my blog last year.

Another interesting coincidence is that Mr. Bodansky is a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins University, home of Professor I. William Zartman who also has interesting ideas about the Western Sahara and merited his own post. But Johns Hopkins is a big diverse place and I have no idea whether the two even know each other, so I will refrain from pursuing this angle.

Anyway, I reserve judgment on what all this means until I get a copy of Mr. Bodansky’s “recent analysis” that MACP promises will enlighten us all about Polisario terrorism.

Richard Edelman, Spinmeister

“There is no place in PR for spin. To be deemed a spinmeister is the ultimate insult. We are in the business of presenting reality, both to clients’ stakeholders but also to the client. We advise, develop strategy and listen, so that we help to shape the reality.” www.edelman.com/speak_up/blog/archives/2007/06/

--Richard Edelman, June 1, 2007

Last year Richard Edelman, CEO of Edelman PR, the world’s largest independent PR firm, came out with a post on his blog, 6 A.M., that is so hypocritical that one really has to wonder whether he is clueless about what his large company is up to or whether he is, well, just a hypocrite.

The post in question from May 25 is titled “The Power of One (and of Stories).” In it Mr. Edelman tells of a screening he had attended the night before of a National Geographic documentary called “God Grew Tired of Us (The Lost Boys of Sudan).” It is a moving and inspirational story of refugee children from southern Sudan who fled the genocidal brutality of Khartoum, suffered years of horror and deprivation living in refugee camps, and, in the case of John Bul Dau (author of the book on which the movie is based), ended up reunited with his family and getting an education in Seattle.

From the film, the discussion that followed the screening, and a meeting with Mr. Bul Dau, Mr. Edelman eloquently outlines the lessons that we can learn from the author and all these courageous children: that “leaders can emerge from unexpected places and unforeseen circumstances,” that “his optimism was tempered by realism but nourished by a deep faith from his religious background but also by confidence in himself,” that “there is no substitute for hard work,” and that “the power of family is a central element of his success.”

While I laud Mr. Edelman’s bringing this moving story to our attention and agree with the sentiments he expresses in his post, I am stunned by his seeming ignorance of the refugee crisis his company is helping to perpetuate on the other side of Africa, in the Western Sahara.

For those of you uninitiated about this issue, in the mid-1970s, in the wake of an International Court of Justice ruling that confirmed the Western Sahara’s right to de-colonial self-determination, Morocco invaded the territory driving some 150,000 of the indigenous Sahrawi from their homes and into dismal refugee camps over the border in the Tindouf region of Algeria. After 15 years of inconclusive warfare, the parties signed a peace treaty in 1991 which called for a referendum on independence. And after another 15 years of attempts by the UN to implement the referendum, Morocco unilaterally canceled the referendum process rather than risk a vote they might lose.

Morocco’s refusal to abide by clear international law and to allow the Western Saharans the right to self-determination enjoyed by every other colony in Africa, has resulted in a refugee crisis now well into its fourth decade. Many in the camps have known no other home. The refugees live in tents and mud-brick houses. Educational and professional opportunities are extremely limited or non-existent. UNHCR which monitors the camps regularly cites dire health conditions with high levels of anemia and acute malnutrition among the most severe problems. If Mr. Edelman is looking for “lost” refugee children to champion, he need look no farther than the boys and girls of Tindouf.

Mr. Edelman’s company, however, chooses to turn a blind eye to the suffering of the Sahrawi children and to take money, lots of money, from the Government of Morocco which helps perpetuate their misery. In particular, I point to Edelman PR’s partnership with the Moroccan American Center for Policy (MACP), a registered agent of the Kingdom of Morocco.

While Edelman PR’s relationship with the Government of Morocco deals with a number of issues, their partnership with MACP appears to be all about the Western Sahara. A look a MACP’s website is revealing. Here we get the same collection of untruths, half-truths, omissions, and distortions about the Western Sahara that has been coming out of Rabat for over thirty years. For instance, we learn that “current Moroccan claims of sovereignty are merely reassertions of … [a] past period of influence” (totally rejected by the International Court of Justice); that Sahrawi children from the refugee camps are habitually “kidnapped” and “deported” to Cuba for “indoctrination” (totally rejected by the UNHCR); and that the Polisario Front, the national liberation movement of the Western Sahara, is a “separatist movement" (see my last few posts). The information we get about the Western Sahara is pure boilerplate Moroccan propaganda.

The outrageousness of the site is aptly symbolized by its inclusion of a map of Morocco (including the Western Sahara within its borders) that is accepted by no country. I’m sure Mr. Edelman would have a thing or two to say about Palestinian maps that don’t show the state of Israel (or even Israeli maps that include Palestine within its borders).

Edelman PR’s active collaboration with MACP in the dissemination of Moroccan propaganda is clearly illustrated by the disclaimer that appears at the end of MACP press releases. They read: “This material is distributed by DJE, Inc. and the Moroccan-American Center for Policy on behalf of the Government of Morocco. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice in Washington, DC.” DJE in case you were wondering stands for Daniel J. Edelman. Stick this disclaimer in your favorite search engine and read some of the press releases that Edelman has been distributing -- pretty raunchy stuff most of it, if truth is what you value.

Edelman PR’s highest profile work on behalf of MACP was the Free Them Now campaign for the release of the last remaining Moroccan prisoners of war being held by the Polisario Front -- a campaign by the way that got Edelman a Golden World Award for Advocacy & Lobbying from the International Public Relations Association (IPRA).

It is not so much the actual cause of the prisoners of war that I find a problem; several pro-Polisario analysts had concluded that holding the remaining POW’s had become counterproductive for the Western Saharan cause and that they should be released on humanitarian grounds. Actually, the Polisario itself had been committed for over a decade to releasing the prisoners and had already released most of them. Nevertheless, it was Morocco’s refusal to come clean about hundreds of Western Saharan disappearances and to hold a referendum as they had agreed to that more than anything held up the release.

What I find reprehensible about the Edelman campaign is its utter mendacity. Free Them Now was part of a much broader effort by Edelman to demonize the Polisario by blitzing the American media with Moroccan lies. Edelman’s own description of the campaign on the website of the International Public Relations Association is an amazing read on the art of spin.

I have written extensively about several of the “execution points” (as Edelman calls them) of the campaign: Senator McCain’s grandstanding, the Washington Times’ propensity to believe and print any rubbish Morocco and Edelman give it, Congressman Diaz-Balart’s totally disgraceful press conference in Miami. In a nutshell, Edelman PR partnered with MACP to spread misinformation about the Western Sahara in order to sway public opinion to accept Morocco’s brutal and illegal occupation and to whitewash Morocco’s blatant refusal to abide by international law.

Oh yes, this is about Mr. Bul Dau and poor refugees. Edelman PR is actively colluding with Morocco to deny the Western Saharans their day at the ballot box and to ensure that the boys and girls of Tindouf suffer in their dismal refugee camps for the foreseeable future. Mr. Edelman’s attempt to have us believe that he cares at all about poor refugee children is a bit rich I would say.

Let me return for a moment to my initial paragraph where I ponder whether Mr. Edelman was hypocritical, ignorant of what his company is up to, or a hypocrite. I admit to being a regular reader of Mr. Edelman’s 6.A.M. blog. As a long-time critic of Edelman PR’s involvement with Morocco, I am fascinated by his weekly attempts to position his company as THE ethical PR firm., while the blogosphere groans under the weight of thousands of posts ranting about Edelman PR’s ethical envelopepushing. Google Edelman and Wal-Mart or Microsoft for a sample. Hypocritical, ignorant, or a hypocrite? Oh I don’t know. Maybe Mr. Edelman should rename his blog 8 A.M or even 10 A.M.; perhaps he needs a few extra hours of sleep.

On Mr. Edelman’s blog I asked him a question that he refrained to acknowledge or answer; so in conclusion I will ask it here. Mr. Edelman, if the Government of Sudan walked into your office tomorrow and offered you lots of money to clean up their image in the United States, would you take it? If your answer is “yes” then shame on you; if it is “no” that’s commendable, but then why do you take money from Morocco?

Edward M. Gabriel: Beating on a Dead Camel

Oh I know I said I wasn’t going to bore you with a detailed analysis of Edward M. Gabriel’s article in National Interest supporting Morocco’s autonomy plan . However, after Ambassador Gabriel honored me with a comment on my humble blog, I feel impelled to respond to his challenge.

“I stand by the content of my article,” writes Mr. Gabriel.

OK

Here are some of the statements he stands by (his words in bold):

“For centuries, nomadic tribes of the Sahara–known collectively as Sahrawis—subsisted in the vast expanse of the Sahara (across present-day Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania and Mali) while pledging allegiance to the Sultanate of Morocco. The colonial occupation of the region by Spain, and subsequent borders imposed in the area, did not take into account the unique cultural, political and economic identity of the Sahrawi people, who had always been inextricably tied to the south of Morocco.”

I’m a little confused here. If the Sahrawi tribes subsisting in the “vast expanse of the Sahara (across present-day Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania and Mali)” all pledged allegiance to the Sultanate of Morocco and if these pledges really constituted bonds of sovereignty that justify Morocco’s invasion and occupation of the Western Sahara, then why isn’t Morocco trying to recover their Algerian, Mauritanian, and Malian Saharas also. Actually, after Morocco got its independence from France, the nationalist Istiqlal party did claim all of this area (and even some of Senegal), but these grandiose claims haven’t seen the light of day for a while. Why Mr. Gabriel seems to be dredging up the long-discredited greater-Moroccan thesis is unclear. And if he truly believes in this thesis, why is Mr. Gabriel picking only on the Western Sahara?

“During the Cold War, following Spain’s withdrawal from the Sahara, a separatist revolutionary group known as the Polisario Front, backed by the USSR, Algeria, Cuba and Libya, attempted to wrest the region away from Morocco, which had reestablished its traditional sovereignty in the former Spanish colony.”

I wonder whether that is “separatist revolutionary” as in the thirteen colonies. In any event, I have discussed the erroneous use of “separatist” elsewhere. No country recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over the WS, so there is nothing to separate from. In his attempt to place the Polisario on the wrong side in the Cold War, Mr. Gabriel includes the USSR as one of their backers. In fact, the USSR always refused to back the Polisario either financially or militarily in order to protect its huge 30-year phosphates deal concluded with the kingdom in 1978. Even diplomatic backing was lacking, which can be seen from the fact the USSR (and Russia for that matter) has never recognized the Polisario Front. And Mr. Gabriel seems to have forgotten that during the Cold War the number of countries that “backed” the Polisario with official recognition reached into the seventies. And of course Mr. Gabriel’s claim that Morocco “reestablished its traditional sovereignty in the former Spanish colony” was debunked by the International Court of Justice and discredited by the de facto refusal of the world community to recognize any such “traditional sovereignty.”

“A United Nations ceasefire was established in 1991, but since that time various efforts to reach a political solution to the issue have failed.”

The 1991 cease-fire agreement that was signed by both parties and which, among other things, called for a referendum on independence or inclusion in Morocco WAS a “political solution.” If Morocco had honored its agreement to hold a referendum with an electorate based on the 1975 census, the Western Sahara crisis would have been over a long time ago. Gabriel’s contention that “efforts to reach a political solution … have failed” is a feeble attempt to cover up the fact that a political solution was reached years ago and the reality that Morocco bears full responsibility for not allowing implementation of that solution.

“The impasse reflected the Polisario Front’s firm stance that only independence will suffice, while Morocco insisted upon reintegration of its land and people within its national borders.”

This is just wrong. The Polisario has NEVER taken a “stance,” and certainly never a “firm” one, that “only independence will suffice.” The Polisario has always said they would abide by whatever the inhabitants of the territory voted for in a referendum – be it inclusion in Morocco, autonomy, or independence. Their firm stance is that only a referendum on independence will suffice. Similarly, if Morocco has always “insisted upon reintegration of its land and people within its national borders,” why then did Hassan II sign an agreement setting up a referendum on independence?

In assessing this article, the sections that I have put under the microscope constitute only the edge of the Sahara of Mr. Gabriel’s dishonesty. As is usually the case with this kind of writing, all the facts and points of international law that that don’t fit into or that contradict his pro-Moroccan line are just left out.

And so, having fabricated a totally misleading and bogus history of the conflict, Mr. Gabriel moves on to make his case for Morocco’s autonomy proposal. You know right away where he is going when he writes, “This decision [to present the autonomy plan] was reached through a wide-ranging discussion among the stakeholders in Morocco….” Come on Mr. Gabriel, who cares what they think in Morocco; they are after all the invader and occupier. It’s what they think in El Ayoun or Tindouf that matters.

I find his case far from convincing, but here I will really truly refrain from delving into the minutia of his arguments. Mr. Gabriel can blather on all he wants about how Western Saharan autonomy is the best solution for all the ills of Morocco and the Maghreb, but his arguments are all irrelevant because of his total rejection of the Western Saharans’ right to de-colonial self-determination.

The Polisario has already rejected Morocco’s plan and after two meetings in Manhasset has stood firm in its refusal to discuss autonomy outside of the context of a referendum on independence. Mr. Gabriel’s article in support of Morocco’s autonomy plan is an attempt to create a sand storm to blind the American reader to the truth and reality of the Western Sahara issue. Or as Bob Dylan might have said ("Man in the Long Black Coat" in Oh Mercy), “Somebody is out there beating on a dead camel.”

I thank Mr. Gabriel again for making his comment on my blog. His excuse that he divulged his affiliation with the Moroccan government with National Interest and they refrained to mention it with his article is I think rather lame. In published opinion pieces, authors who have a financial interest in the propagation of a particular point of view have an ethical obligation to divulge that interest – either in the article or in a biographical note. Mention of Mr. Gabriel’s paid relationship with the kingdom of Morocco initially appeared in neither place.

Edward M. Gabriel, Piranha

There’s nothing like a few days of stalking large- and smallmouth bass, stripers, and northern pike to take my mind off of the situation in the Western Sahara. As I settled back to my desk after a relaxing fishing vacation in Maine, I came upon an August 31^st article on National Interest Online by the old piranha, former American ambassador to Morocco Edward M. Gabriel, titled Inside Track: Resolving the Western Sahara Saga. Oh well, the soothing pristine calm of the Kennebec is all of a sudden a distant memory.

I will not bore you with a detailed analysis of this piece of Moroccan propaganda; there is absolutely nothing that distinguishes it from the rubbish coming out of Rabat, or from the spinmeisters at Edelman, or the poisoned pens of others who have sold out to the Moroccans such as Frederick Vreeland and Robert Holley. Let me just say that it is very much what we have come to expect from former American diplomats to Morocco who now make a pleasant living on Rabat’s payroll.

In the latest (available online) Report of the Attorney General to the Congress of the United States on the Administration of the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938, as amended, for the six months ending June 30, 2006, we learn that Mr. Gabriel is somewhat of a double-dipper, as he turns up as a registered foreign agent for Morocco under both his own company, Gabriel Company, LLC, and Robert Holley’s chop shop, Moroccan-American Center for Policy, Inc.(MACP) To dispel the notion that he might have gotten a real job since that last report, Mr. Gabriel in May of this year prefaced his remarks at a Western Sahara conference at the Center for American Progress (CAP) in Washington, DC, by divulging that he was still taking money from the Government of Morocco.

Mr. Gabriel over the last couple years has been a fixture on the Moroccan propaganda circuit showing up regularly at MACP, Edelman, and National Clergy Council events. Always seated next to his fellow Moroccan foreign agents, he struts his ambassadorial status in a lame attempt to give some stamp of legitimacy to the crass dishonesty of these propaganda shows. His article is, similarly, nothing more than propaganda aimed at influencing American public opinion to accept Morocco’s illegal occupation of the Western Sahara.

It is mindboggling that Mr. Gabriel should have the audacity to write his article in support of Morocco’s autonomy plan without divulging his relationship with the Moroccan government – especially in view of a similar stunt in the New York Times back in March by another former American ambassador to Morocco, “Fricky” Vreeland. In Vreeland’s case, the Times issued a correction three weeks later stating that he was “chairman of a solar-energy company that has had contracts with the Moroccan government” and the article “should have more fully disclosed the background of the author.” It is my hope that National Interest Online will exhibit a similar concern for transparency and journalistic ethics by adding a disclaimer to Mr. Gabriel’s article.

I am pleased to report that National Interest has amended their biographical note about Mr. Gabriel, and it now reads, "Edward M. Gabriel is a former U.S. Ambassador to Morocco and a consultant to the Moroccan government."

I. William Zartman & the Final Solution of the Sahrawi Problem

On 16 May 2007, the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies presented an article in its Africa Policy Forum series titled "Western Sahara – Continuing Standoff." The author of the article, Anna Theofilopoulou, is described as follows:

Anna Theofilopoulou covered Western Sahara and North Africa in the Department of Political Affairs of the United Nations from 1994 to 2006. She worked closely with former U.S. Secretary of State, James A. Baker, III throughout his appointment as Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General on Western Sahara – from March 1997 until his resignation in June 2004.

Ms. Theofilopoulou clearly has an intimate familiarity with the Western Sahara issue, and her analysis of the present situation is one of the better ones that I have read in a while. The whole article is well worth reading, but for the purposes of this post I quote her concluding paragraph:

The Security Council has chosen to deal with this issue by adopting the suggestion by the Secretary-General for negotiations between the parties without preconditions. This is not the first time that the Security Council, when confronted with a difficult choice and crucial disagreements among its members, has bounced the issue back into the court of the Secretary-General. There has been giddy talk among Morocco’s supporters about a “breakthrough,” since the parties have indeed agreed to direct talks. However, given the irreconcilable nature of the positions that each side has brought to the table, what are the chances for these talks to bring about any results? At best, the latest decision by the Security Council promises several more years of stalemate.

I agree with this assessment and can only add that, at worst, war in some form could return to the Maghreb. The Africa Policy Forum actively solicits comments and what really caught my eye was this comment by I. William Zartman directly following the article:

· 1. I William Zartman | May 16th, 2007 at 10:19 pm

Ana [sic] Theofilopoulou’s piece on the Western Sahar [sic] is cogent and well informed, but it stops where it should continue. Sure, Algeria needs to be brought into a settlement. But what settlement? Morocco’s proposal for autonomy is the only proposal ever made by one of the parties including Algeria) that departs from extreme positions and seeks the middle. In so doing, Morcco [sic] takes enormous risks: 1) that its autonomy proposal be viewed as a step toward independence, like East Timor or Palestine, as the UN Secretariat tends to view the solution, and 2) that its proposal be viewed as the new starting position and Algeria then proposing to split the difference, landing on te [sic] Polisario side of the “crest of sovereignty.” The challenge is to flesh out and implement the autonomy plan as a final solution, and inthat [sic] the US, France and Spain are not wrong in supporting the plan. Theofilopoulou does not tell us what to support, only that Algeria (and the PLS) need to be brought in. Into what? Autonomy is a good proposal and we should stick to it.

While fully aware of Mr. Zartman’s lofty reputation as Professor of International Organizations and Conflict Resolution and Director of the Conflict Management Program at Johns Hopkins University, I am somewhat baffled and disturbed by some of his comments regarding Ms. Theofilopoulou’s article and on the Western Saharan conflict in general.

His basic problem with the article is that it does not take a stand, that “it stops where it should continue.” What he means by this becomes immediately clear. He writes, “Morocco’s proposal for autonomy is the only proposal ever made by one of the parties (including Algeria) that departs from extreme positions and seeks the middle.” I find Mr. Zartman’s idea that the autonomy plan “seeks the middle” totally off base. The Polisario Front and Morocco signed a UN-brokered agreement in 1991 calling for a referendum on independence. Given that the UN had been calling for this referendum since the 1960s when the Western Sahara was designated a non-self-governing territory and given that both parties agreed to the referendum, I am at a loss to understand how this proposal to hold a referendum could be considered an “extreme position.”

In fact, for the decade after 1991 the holding of a referendum on independence WAS the “middle,” and both parties considered autonomy “extreme.” A quote by John Bolton, who helped James Baker in the negotiations, is illustrative:

…when Secretary Baker went to the region and asked the King, asked the government of Morocco, asked the leadership of the POLISARIO, "What do you want?" They said, without hesitation and without equivocation, "We want a free and fair referendum." "Want to talk about autonomy?" "No, we don't want to talk about autonomy. We want to talk about a referendum. (Defense Forum Foundation, 1998 Congressional Defense and Foreign Policy Forum, “Resolving the Western Sahara Conflict”)

Mr. Zartman’s view that autonomy is now a commendable middle position that should be supported by all totally ignores the history of how and why Morocco finally rejected the referendum on independence that after all both parties had agreed to. In several stages, Morocco quite simply came to the realization that it would or could lose any referendum, no matter how many concessions were made by the Polisario (and they made several) and no matter how many thousands of pro-Moroccan settlers were added to the voter list. In fact, the Polisario’s acceptance of James Baker’s last plan in 2003 (Baker II) was an incredibly risky concession in that the Moroccan settlers that would be allowed to vote in Baker’s referendum greatly outnumbered the indigenous Sahrawi. And even with the numbers heavily stacked in its favor, Rabat, apparently still convinced it could lose, rejected Baker II, took any possibility of independence off the table, and declared autonomy a noble compromise.

Mr. Zartman makes much of Morocco’s risks in proposing autonomy. For instance he states, “Morcco [sic] takes enormous risks: 1) that its autonomy proposal be viewed as a step toward independence, like East Timor or Palestine, as the UN Secretariat tends to view the solution.” Mr. Zartman is quite right that the UN Secretariat groups the Western Sahara with East Timor and Palestine as places that under clear international law are (and in the case of East Timor were) entitled to independence. What Mr. Zartman doesn’t make clear is why the Western Sahara should be treated differently from the other two, and in particular East Timor. East Timor before independence fell precisely under the same legal framework as the Western Sahara. Both were categorized as non-self-governing territories with the right to self-determination with independence as an option. I would be interested in knowing why Mr. Zartman apparently accepts East Timor’s independence but rejects the possibility of the Western Sahara’s. In any event, his flippant dismissal of international law (“as the UN Secretariat tends to view the solution”) in favor of Morocco’s autonomy plan is disturbing. And in the final analysis what Mr. Zartman is saying is that Morocco's "enormous" risk is that in the end international law just might prevail. How horrible.

In addition, on the question of risk, Mr. Zartman is silent on the risks of the Western Saharans accepting autonomy. Morocco pretty much broke every agreement it made with the Polisario in the decade after 1991. Why should the Polisario trust that Rabat would honor any autonomy agreement, even with constitutional and international guarantees?

I would urge Mr. Zartman to consider the cautionary tale of Eritrea. Eritrea in 1952 (in a situation with far too many eerie parallels to the Western Sahara to go into here) was forced into an autonomy arrangement within Ethiopia – but with seemingly ironclad assurances that Eritrea’s status could not be changed without UN approval. It took little more than a decade for Ethiopia to throw autonomy out the window and fully annex Eritrea, with hardly a whimper from the UN or the world community. And then it took another thirty plus years of unbelievable carnage and misery in the horn of Africa before Eritrean independence was achieved.

Agreeing to autonomy for the Polisario involves, it seems to me, an incredible leap of faith, and if oil one day is discovered in Western Saharan waters does anyone really think that Morocco would continue to allow the Western Saharans to run their own affairs?

Mr. Zartman quickly reaches his conclusion:

The challenge is to flesh out and implement the autonomy plan as a final solution, and inthat [sic] the US, France and Spain are not wrong in supporting the plan. Theofilopoulou does not tell us what to support, only that Algeria (and the PLS) need to be brought in. Into what? Autonomy is a good proposal and we should stick to it.

My impression (and I think Ms. Theofilopoulou’s too) is that no amount of fleshing out will be enough to convince the Polisario to discard their right to self-determination and accept the extreme solution of autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. They have international law on their side, and as mentioned above they have every reason to completely mistrust Morocco’s intentions. I don’t think it is farfetched to consider that if the Western Sahara loses its international status as a non-self-governing territory and becomes an “internal affair,” Morocco would have free rein to really bring us a “final solution,” as Mr. Zartman so delicately puts it. And if you feel I am being a bit alarmist here, I suggest you check out the latest Western Sahara reports from Freedom House, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch to get a picture of Morocco’s brutal totalitarian occupation.

I find it interesting that Mr. Zartman would have us “implement” Morocco’s autonomy plan, without any consideration of what the Western Saharans might think about it nor any mention that the Polisario has already categorically rejected the plan. This seems to be a plan to ram autonomy down the Western Saharans’ throats.

He feels that “the US, France and Spain are not wrong in supporting the plan.” I guess there IS nothing wrong with supporting it, but there is everything wrong with imposing it; and imposing it seems to be very much what Mr. Zartman has in mind. What else could he have in mind given that the Polisario has, I repeat, already rejected Morocco’s plan? Mr. Zartman has no problem with bringing Algeria and the Polisario into the process, but only to discuss autonomy. That smells of imposition to me.

And finally Mr. Zartman finishes with, “Autonomy is a good proposal and we should stick to it.” Good for whom, Mr. Zartman? And your argument that we should “stick to it” appears to be more of an argument to “stick it to” these poor desert people who deserve better.

What I find most disturbing about Mr. Zartman’s statement of support for Morocco’s autonomy plan is that he is a world-famous and prestigious expert on conflict resolution. No matter how nice autonomy might appear on paper, forced autonomy or autonomy outside the context of the Western Sahara’s right to self-determination (with independence as an option) is a recipe for disaster and conflict deterioration.

Mr. Zartman gets on Ms Theofilopoulou’s case about her not telling us what to support, so I will give my view. I can say wholeheartedly that I support a return to the referendum on independence as the basis for a settlement. The UN proposal to hold the referendum has been the only substantive thing the two parties have agreed on in over thirty years. Just because Morocco backed out of the referendum when it realized it might lose is no reason to scuttle this middle ground. The great powers must finally pressure Morocco to honor its agreements and abide by international law. The autonomy plan, that rewards Morocco’s aggression, sidesteps international law, and has little or no discernable support from the Polisario or among the Western Saharans, should be buried very deep in the sands of the Sahara.